L’Italia e la crisi in Libia. Un grave errore da evitare

Nelle ultime settimane l’attenzione mediatica sulla crisi libica è aumentata, soprattutto in seguito al brutale omicidio dei copti egiziani rivendicato e propagandato dalle milizie allineate all’ISIS. L’effettiva consistenza delle forze del sedicente “califfato” in Libia è ancora un dato controverso, ma la preoccupazione per la presenza di questi gruppi a poche migliaia di chilometri dall’Italia è certamente giustificata.

La possibile minaccia dell’ISIS ha così alimentato il dibattito relativo al “che fare” per risolvere la guerra civile in Libia, scatenatasi nel contesto di instabilità successivo all’intervento militare del 2011. Gli argomenti al centro della discussione attuale ruotano sugli errori del passato o sul “senso di emergenza” dovuta alla duplice minaccia, l’avanzata dell’ISIS e la temuta “invasione” di un nuovo flusso migratorio verso l’Italia, tema suscettibile a continue strumentalizzazioni politiche (ne abbiamo parlato in dettaglio un precedente post). Ma, al di là di alcune dichiarazioni isolate,  che hanno anche paventato un intervento militare italiano, appare assente una riflessione adeguata sulle possibili soluzioni del cuore della crisi, ovvero la guerra civile che si è scatenata tra le forze legate al governo di Tobruk (riconosciuto internazionalmente e ampiamente sostenuto dall’Egitto) e la coalizione Libya Dawn , composta da forze islamiste e milizie (come quelle di Misurata), che comandano tuttora a Tripoli.

Osservando la posizione del governo italiano (variegata a dir la verità) sembra che Roma, giustamente prudente rispetto all’idea di un nuovo complicatissimo intervento militare, propenda per un rafforzamento del legame con gli “uomini forti” di Tobruk e del Cairo. Una posizione condivisa dalla Francia e da quei paesi arabi che mirano alla sconfitta totale dei Fratelli Musulmani.

Ma schierarsi con Tobruk sarebbe un grave errore da parte dell’Italia.

In un recente articolo uscito per Foreign Policy, Mattia Toaldo e Jason Pack illustrano chiaramente come la soluzione diplomatica del conflitto sia la via prioritaria da seguire, evitando la inefficace e controproducente opzione di schierarsi con una parte in confitto. Il senso di urgenza alimentato dalla crescente minaccia dell’ISIS, come terzo attore in gioco, rischia di danneggiare gli sforzi diplomatici, che richiedono tempo.

Secondo gli autori: “Western governments should not view the Libyan crisis solely in the context of counter-terrorism and energy policy. To do so would be to address a symptom of the crisis rather than its cause. The rise of Islamic State-aligned militias in Libya is a result of the civil war, so mediating an end to it should be the priority.”

La proxy war combattuta da vari stati della regione in Libia non fa che peggiorare le cose. Proprio per questo, interrompere il flusso di denaro che è tuttora alimentato da attori esterni sarebbe cruciale: “Alternative financial institutions created by the two rival governments should be denied the recognition that would allow them to enter into contracts with international firms”.

Per prevenire e constare la minaccia dell’ISIS occorre in primis porre fine alla guerra civile. “The disintegration of the Libyan state is already allowing for the creation of IS enclaves on the Mediterranean. Libya’s smuggled oil wealth, caches of heavy weaponry, and pilfered bank accounts could give Islamic State a new lease on life just as it is losing ground in Iraq

Gli autori, giustamente, ritengono che l’unica soluzione al momento sia quella negoziale. Sarebbe opportuno che il governo italiano segua con forza e convinzione questa strada. Alcuni membri del governo e della maggioranza in Commissione Esteri sembrano aver capito che schierarsi con Tobruk ed Egitto è un grave errore. Intelligence e diplomazia sono gli asset principali che Roma deve impiegare nel contesto multilaterale. Ma proprio in questo ambito le costanti difficoltà nel coinvolgere alleati ed Unione Europea ad uno sforzo maggiore (e congiunto) nel gestire il fenomeno migratorio non appaiono certo di buon auspicio.

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