Should I stay or Should I go. Analisi del decreto-legge di rifinanziamento delle missioni militari.

 

ansa_militari

Tra annunci e smentite di probabili tagli ai controversi F-35, è passato sotto silenzio il fatto che il Parlamento abbia approvato poche settimane fa il decreto-legge che “reca una serie di disposizioni volte ad assicurare, per il periodo 1° gennaio – 30 giugno 2014, la proroga della partecipazione del personale delle Forze armate e di polizia alle missioni internazionali, nonché la prosecuzione degli interventi di cooperazione allo sviluppo e a sostegno dei processi di pace e di stabilizzazione”. In poche parole, le missioni internazionali sono state rifinanziate, attraverso il primo voto sul quale il governo Renzi ha posto la fiducia. Un dato interessante che evidenzia quanto il tradizionale consenso bipartisan sulla difesa, ancora esistente (il decreto è stato approvato alla Camera con 325 sì su 502 votanti), non sia forse così solido come un tempo (tutte le opposizioni hanno votato contro, ricorrendo anche all’ostruzionismo e portando l’esecutivo ad apporre la questione di fiducia).

Venus in Arms ha seguito il dibattito relativo al decreto ed esaminato il suo testo, pubblicato in Gazzetta ufficiale lo scorso 17 marzo (come legge n. 28 del 2014 di conversione del decreto legge n. 2 del 2014). L’analisi delle informazioni e delle cifre contenute nel documento non è compito semplice, come spesso avviene per la Difesa italiana, a partire dallo studio di un bilancio segnato costantemente da dati aggregati (tra Ministeri per esempio). Nonostante ciò, è possibile mettere in risalto alcuni aspetti (generali e specifici) degni di nota.

1.      Il primo dato rilevante è in realtà una carenza, in piena continuità con il passato. Come ha riconosciuto lo stesso Ministro della Difesa Pinotti, manca ancora una vera e propria “legge quadro” sulle missioni internazionali. Secondo il Ministro occorre colmare il “Vuoto normativo rispetto alla procedura da seguire in ordine alla deliberazione e all’autorizzazione di tali missioni”. Manca, in altre parole: “un quadro legislativo stabile che assicuri una disciplina uniforme da applicare in tutti i casi di partecipazione del personale militare alle missioni internazionali”. Il rifinanziamento, infatti, è ancora semestrale e le missioni sono accorpate tutte assieme. Studi recenti evidenziano come le procedure di autorizzazione di interventi militari oltre confine siano basate su norme costituzionali o sulla pratica consolidata, mentre il controllo parlamentare non può certo essere paragonato ad un’autorizzazione formale in caso di “guerra”.  È questo il motivo per il quale le missioni sono state generalmente approvate tramite decreti di rifinanziamento poi tramutati in legge. Addirittura, nella storia nazionale post-bellica il Parlamento ha approvato 49 missioni prima del loro dispiegamento, 11 in corso d’opera e ben 34 al termine delle attività sul campo. Mentre 30 interventi militari non sono mai stati sottoposti al vaglio delle Camere! Uno scenario che riserva spesso situazioni paradossali, come la mancata copertura finanziaria della partecipazione italiana alla missione in Afghanistan, durante i primi giorni di ottobre 2013. Il decreto di approvazione era scaduto a causa della contemporanea crisi del governo Letta. La letteratura ha più volte evidenziato come la perdurante assenza di una legge-quadro in materia: “rischia di generare ulteriori effetti collaterali e di impedire una discussione approfondita sugli aspetti politici e strategici di ogni operazione”. 

2.      Il fattore di maggiore novità della politica di difesa italiana nell’epoca post-bipolare è stato senza alcun dubbio il dinamismo delle sue forze armate. Da uno strumento militare statico, volto alla difesa (ipotetica e assai breve) del confine nord orientale, ad uno dinamico, proiettabile costantemente all’estero. In ogni rilevante crisi regionale i soldati italiani sono stati presenti, fornendo il proprio contributo, prima simbolico (Desert Storm) poi significativo (KFOR, UNIFIL, ISAF). Nel primo decennio del nuovo secolo l’Italia ha impiegato una media di 8000 soldati in missioni internazionali. Come emerge dal decreto e dai dati forniti dal Ministero della Difesa, negli ultimi anni si registra un calo degli effettivi, arrivando alle attuali 5000 unità. Il grafico sottostante evidenzia tale declino, imputabile a tre possibili fattori: la crisi finanziaria, il graduale ritiro dall’Afghanistan e (dato ancora da verificare empiricamente) una crescente opposizione dell’opinione pubblica a tali interventi, che nei decenni passati avevano spesso riscosso buoni livelli di consenso mentre negli ultimi anni sono stati invece segnati da un basso livello di supporto (Iraq, Libia, Afghanistan post 2009). In altre parole, i decision-makers nostrani appaiono più prudenti e talvolta restii (come emerso nelle crisi in Mali e Siria) a fornire “automaticamente” un contributo militare ad operazioni internazionali.

                                           Militari italiani impiegati in operazioni all’estero (2004-2014)

ViA_missioni_fig

                                            (Elaborazione di Venus in Arms, dati Ministero della Difesa)

3.      Analizzando la discussione che ha preceduto l’approvazione del decreto e le sue diverse voci, emergono alcuni fattori di continuità rispetto alle priorità geografiche dell’Italia (ISAF ed EUPOL in Afghanistan, UNIFIL in Libano, le varie missioni nel Mediterraneo, nei Balcani e nel Corno D’Africa). Ma al contempo sembra delinearsi (almeno nel dibattito) un elemento di novità: l’interesse crescente verso l’area del Sahel, caratterizzata da una forte instabilità in relazione a fenomeni quali la criminalità transnazionale, i traffici di persone, armi e stupefacenti, e il terrorismo (oltre alla rilevanza strategica dell’area). Per quanto diverse operazioni siano state finanziate dal decreto nella suddetta regione (MINUSTA e EUTM in Mali e EUCAP Sahel-Niger) pochissimi effettivi saranno dislocati nell’area, ancora remota in termini di presenza concreta della politica estera italiana. Al di là delle scelte che verranno compiute (le informazioni sul tema sono ancora nebulose), dovrà essere evitata una pericolosa discrasia tra ambizioni e risorse (EU style), e garantita una chiara direzione politica e strategica rispetto a obiettivi e strumenti rispetto alla (eventuale) presenza nazionale nella regione

4.      Un filo rosso che sembra legare le missioni finanziate dal decreto è la centralità del compito dell’addestramento delle forze di sicurezza locali. Si tratta di un vero e proprio core task per le forze armate italiane, che spesso guidano (come nel caso di EUTM Somalia) missioni volte a ricostruire le forze militari e di polizia nel paese oggetto di intervento. Negli ultimi decenni l’addestramento (anche grazie alla speciale “natura” dei Carabinieri) rappresenta una competenza (cruciale negli scenari bellici odierni) che le forze italiane hanno sviluppato ampiamente. La speranza è che i decisori siano consapevoli che limitate operazioni “tecniche” stile Security Sector Reform non bastano a risolvere le carenze di paesi che richiedono interventi politici nel medio e lungo periodo.

5.      Appaiono poi numerose le operazioni militari volte a contrastare minacce non militari, come l’immigrazione clandestina. A tal proposito, i fini e gli obiettivi della missione Mare Nostrum rimangono ancora poco chiari: protezione dei migranti? sorveglianza dei flussi? respingimenti? (a tal proposito è sempre bene ricordare come nel 2012 la Corte Europea dei Diritti dell’Uomo di Strasburgo abbia condannato l’Italia per aver violato la Convenzione Europea dei Diritti dell’Uomo intercettando e rinviando in Libia un gruppo di cittadini somali ed eritrei senza esaminare le loro necessità di protezione). La chiarezza di fini ed obiettivi delle missioni appare sempre un dato fondamentale, che spesso è stato disatteso dal dibattito nazionale.

6.      Ultimo aspetto, solo apparentemente secondario nel decreto: “i fondi destinati alle attività di cooperazione civile da parte dei contingenti militari a favore delle missioni in atto nei Balcani, in Libano, in Afghanistan e nel Corno d’Africa”. Dato che finalmente sembra sulla dirittura d’arrivo la nuova legge sulla Cooperazione italiana allo sviluppo (elaborata nel 1987, ai tempi in cui Baggio giocava ancora nella Fiorentina; al confronto i 12 anni dall’ultimo Libro Bianco sembrano una piccola pausa di riflessione), sarebbe opportuno promuovere una seria discussione sul (controverso) tema del rapporto tra attori civili e militari in materia di interventi di cooperazione.

In conclusione, è possibile affermare che i prossimi mesi saranno decisivi per il futuro della politica di difesa italiana e delle sue missioni militari oltre confine. Il ritiro di gran parte del contingente nazionale all’Afghanistan alla fine dell’anno (a proposito, cosa sappiamo della nuova missione che sarà svolta post-2014?) richiederà una revisione complessiva degli impegni militari internazionali. La possibilità di alimentare finalmente un dibattito ampio e partecipato sui temi della sicurezza e della difesa (preliminare alla stesura del possibile nuovo Libro Bianco) è una condizione centrale per accompagnare adeguatamente i cambiamenti futuri.

 

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